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Well,
the numbers are out for December. 2007 is behind us but the
road doesn't seem any less bumpy. Recession is on everyone's
mind. The recent rate cut certainly helps and we can expect
more, possibly another 0.5%. But what does all this mean for
the housing market?
I've
been saying for the past three months that we were nearing
our bottom and the numbers in Atlanta were stabilizing. Here's
what I mean….
For
all of Metro Atlanta the picture may not be quite as bright
as North Atlanta but remember that when the national news
talks about housing market declines they are generally referring
to the West, Southwest and Northeast. For example, take a
look at the comparison for single family homes in North Fulton
– West of 400 (this area includes the cities of Milton and
portions of Alpharetta and Roswell ):
North
Fulton – West of Hwy 400
The
total number of closings are down, which is no surprise. Closings
have been down all year long for all of Metro Atlanta. But
this is a hefty increase in average sales price.
David
Rosenberg, an economist for Merrill Lynch was recently quoted
in the NY Times as saying for housing prices to return to
normal “they would still need to fall 30 percent across much
of Florida , California and the Southwest and about 20 percent
in the Northeast”. Note that Georgia or the Southeast is not
included here because we didn't see the run-up in home prices
that other parts of the country have, or the massive job losses
like Michigan and Ohio . Another example is Forsyth County
:
Forsyth County
Inventory
levels are up, days on market are longer, but prices are still
holding relatively firm. Homes that are in perfect shape and
priced at market value will sell and sell at close to their
asking price. If you don't fall into that category you take
a hit – generally speaking.
2008
Outlook
We
are anticipating new construction to be down significantly
with builders carrying very little inventory. Resales however
will rebound this year and we are predicting a significant
reduction in the months of inventory by the end of 2008.
So,
the bottom line is if you're a buyer, don't waste too much
time looking for that incredible deal or you may look back
in 6 months or so and wish you had purchased when things were
a little better or when there was more inventory to choose
from.
And
if you're a seller – don't give buyers a reason to beat you
up on price. Right now homes are a commodity and people shop
commodities on price and value. Give buyers the value by putting
your home in the best possible shape.
Keep
in mind that these numbers are for all of Metro Atlanta and
could vary significantly from your city, area or community.
To be sure you can always contact us to request specific information
for you: info@thenorthgroup.com
Thank you,
The NORTH Group |
